The Politics of Peak Oil

Mon Feb 06, 2012 8:16 am by OldNorseman

PetroApocalypse wrote:
OldNorseman wrote:
As you can see, Global Trade has come to a halt.
Nothing can be transported profitably.

Sorry, but the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) can not be used as a measure of how much goods is being transported.

Hey look, a definitive statement backed up by absolutely nothing. Nice.

Hey, if you look carefully, you'll find a few statements from the posters above that are backed up by absolutely nothing: “As you can see, Global Trade has come to a halt. Nothing can be transported profitably.”

The trouble with using graphs in a very biased forum like this one, is that people will get away with posting anything as long as it confirms the general bias of the forum. If the BDI surged, no one would bother mentioning it. The only things that will get posted here is gloomy news. And since most folks already have made up their mind as where this is going and in which speed, any gloomy news will do, even if it is plain bullshit, because such news basically has just one point, and that is to confirm doomers in their belief, much the same way BAU-ers will interpret any news in light of the near past.

In my view is unhealthy if every graph pointing down is taken as sure sign of doom, while everything going up is diagnosed as a soon-to-burst bubble.

From Tickerforum.org:

2010 - Dry bulk demand +12% BDI dropped 46%

2011 - Dry bulk demand +5% BDI dropped 25%

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=201280&page=1

I’ll start a BDI thread here, if anyone is interested in discussing: why-the-baltic-dry-index-is-irrelevant-t6456.html

But really, it would be far better to discuss how this forum is working.

Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:37 am by mcgowanjm

To Norseman:

I'll take your ideology of 'gloom' v good news' charts head on.

1) Do you question that the US is using 3 MMBD less than 4 years ago?

1a) Shouldn't this be viewed as GREAT NEWS in America's search for Energy Independence?

2) Do you think adding, if that's possible, 2 Billion more people to the planet
by 2050 is Good News?

3) Can you show me a Paqrabolic Curve that has hit Asymptote and Stayed there?

Waiting. In the meantime. For your listening pleasure....

Bob Dylan's Masters Of War performed by Sam Bradley - YouTube
► 5:14► 5:14

www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaMz8pgua

_0Sep 16, 2009 - 5 min - Uploaded by samueltube1
Masters Of War - Written By Bob Dylan Performed by Sam Bradley

http://www. myspace.com/sambradley http ...

Would Your Government Murder “Your Child” ? Your Comfort Zone.

If you are a citizen of the USA, Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, or any other E.U. member state and you are confronted with this question, it is absolutely normal to react aggressively and in disbelief against anyone who would make claims that Your government would cynically murder your child while it is in kindergarten or school, and with the purpose to elicit a specific response from the population. A specific, cynically provoked response that is serving a specific political agenda. The normal response would be to flat out reject it as malicious and outrageous.

There are numerous reasons for responding aggressively and in disbelief. One reason may be that this disbelief may be a function of your projection of your own good moral and ethical values on your government, and of you simply being appalled over the fact that anyone would make such outrageous claims about those political candidates you voted for and elected as a people.

(2) Cognitive dissonance, and the unpleasant sensation when you are confronted with the possibility that your world may not be as you belief it to be is is another reason for why you would find such claims disturbing.

(3) Your very human nature that makes you likely to belief that you are just a little bit more clever, and a little bit more difficult to cheat than most others is one more reason.(4) Being well conditioned into not believing “those outrageous conspiracy theories” while rather listening to and believing the talking heads on your most favorite news program, with whom you grew up, and who have been a friend of you and your family, within the comfort and sanctity of your own home via your television or radio is yet another reason.

http://nsnbc.wordpress.com/

Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:39 am by mcgowanjm

And you can take tickerforum with a great big grain of salt.

Mon Feb 06, 2012 9:57 am by mcgowanjm

Old Norseman:

Hey, if you look carefully, you'll find a few statements from the posters above that are backed up by absolutely nothing: “As you can see, Global Trade has come to a halt. Nothing can be transported profitably.”

The trouble with using graphs in a very biased forum like this one, is that people will get away with posting anything as long as it confirms the general bias of the forum. If the BDI surged, no one would bother mentioning it.

As opposed to USSACNBCBLOOMBERG, eh?

The only things that will get posted here is gloomy news.

The Problem is that the USSA is not will not post anything that threatens their
Empire. You want to talk about that?
Like having a MultiMillion Dollar Brand being exposed as a Right Wing Front and having it's head handed to it in less than 24 hours?

Komen Race for the Cure.

That's Great News You want to talk about GOOD news? I can talk about it...

And since most folks already have made up their mind as where this is going and in which speed, any gloomy news will do, even if it is plain bullshit,

Again. Prove it. Ex.

Nippon Yusen May Slow Container Ships to Save Fuel on Surging ...
www.bloomberg.com/.../2011.../nippon-yu ... s...Cached
You +1'd this publicly. Undo
Mar 8, 2011 – Nippon Yusen May Slow Container Ships to Save Fuel on Surging Oil Prices. By Chris Cooper and Kiyotaka Matsuda -. Tue Mar 08 08:02:36 ...

Now why would they do that in a BOOMING economy?

Hey, if you look carefully, you'll find a few statements from the posters above that are backed up by absolutely nothing: “As you can see, Global Trade has come to a halt. Nothing can be transported profitably.”

The trouble with using graphs in a very biased forum like this one, is that people will get away with posting anything as long as it confirms the general bias of the forum. If the BDI surged, no one would bother mentioning it. The only things that will get posted here is gloomy news. And since most folks already have made up their mind as where this is going and in which speed, any gloomy news will do, even if it is plain bullshit, because such news basically has just one point, and that is to confirm doomers in their belief, much the same way BAU-ers will interpret any news in light of the near past.

In my view is unhealthy if every graph pointing down is taken as sure sign of doom, while everything going up is diagnosed as a soon-to-burst bubble.
because such news basically has just one point, and that is to confirm doomers in their belief, much the same way BAU-ers will interpret any news in light of the near past.

In my view is unhealthy if every graph pointing down is taken as sure sign of doom, while everything going up is diagnosed as a soon-to-burst bubble.

Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:05 am by mcgowanjm

And finally Norseman, you can tell me how $100 the BBL
Bunker oil and the price now being received (the BDI

) to move containers
from China to the EU can possibly be growing either economy.

My proof:

#

#
International Shipping News
internationalshippingnews.blogspot.com/Cached - Similar
You +1'd this publicly. Undo
Jan 4, 2012 – Container shipping lines could lose as much as $5.2 billion in 2011 despite a projected ... phenomenon driven by the annual spike before Chinese New Year. ... year for liner operators as delivery of big ships will continue to be a problem .... (Vessel Sharing Agreements, VSA's), to at least save some money.

Waiting for yours that the above is mostly, some, All, bullshit.....

New Low:

The moment I see the BDI rise, I'll post you, Norseman.

#
Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_IndexCached - Similar
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The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic ... of important political and economic decisions—are often measured to serve ...
#
Index:Baltic Dry Index - BDI (BALDRY)
www.wikinvest.com/index/Baltic_Dry_Index_-_BDI_(BALDRY)Cached - Similar
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Jump to Economic Implications‎: It measures the demand to move raw materials and ... markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players.
#
Baltic Dry Index Signals Renewed Market Collapse
www.alt-market.com/.../540-baltic-dry-i ... e...Cached
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Jan 30, 2012 – Much has been said about the Baltic Dry Index over the course of the last ... To imply that the BDI is not a useful measure of future economic trends ..... If that is true we could be in for another wave of revolutionary activity in ...

Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:04 am by mcgowanjm

BTW, Norseman, I want to thank you for bringing my attention to this article:

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/540- ... t-collapse

Excellent. Well worth the read and I'm saving the site for further study..

And another BTW on that 'Gloomy' bizness.

That the Human Economy is destined to crash and burn is Only gloomy
if you think that for some reason humans are closer to gods than yeast.

Because the instant Human Economy crashes and burns the rest of the Planet's
creatures minus our parasites, will begin the 20 000 year journey of restoration
to the Paradise it was approx 12-15 000 years ago.... :twisted:

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