roccman's Assumptions and What Happens Thread

So MGD asked the question most of us have asked - and I pounded out a quick response below.

I am gonna sticky (yep another annoying sticky) because this is as close to a book i will ever write and i will never put a movie together... i figure if ruppert and "survivalists" can wave a "me flag"...so can I.

Anyway - be sure to read the LAST sentence first - then proceed if you so desire.

Anyway, my question is, what will happen when the economy does collapse?

if you make a few assumptions - the "what happens" is very clear:

1) assume TPTB know of Overshoot and Peak Everything
2) assume TPTB know that a voluntary "powerdown" is impossible because of "game theory" see vid below- great must watch vid with John Nash in it.

http://dieoff.org/GameTheory.htm

3) assume Peak Everything is upon us now.
4) assume because of #2 the global economy is being intentionally crashed at this particular time PREMPTIVELY because of #1 by TPTB

So what does a "powerdowned" world look like?

The continum ranges from "world made by hand" to "the book of eli"...

YOU pick where YOU fit along this continum, but even "world made by hand" or the "happy chapter" will be extremely difficult for 7 billion to adjust to - so a dieoff (read Killoff) will likely be in play.

So you want to know how fast this all would occur?

Well - and again - one has to make some assumptions:

1) assume TPTB don't want to destroy infrastructure (transmission lines/gas lines/refineries/etc) with a protracted period of civil unrest.
2) assume TPTB can't do much more that "contain" civil unrest in major cities (the KBR camps are for AFTER the vast majority of the human project is dead) - for the "survivalist" (LOL).
3) assume TPTB want the killoff to occur as quickly as is possible because of #1.

Zero Day - 2 months - (at best)

So - the global markets collapse - credit cards and atms won't do you any good because the system is on tilt...deliveries of food and fuel stop...cash or barter is what occurs in the short-term until the shelves have cleared.

2 months - 6 months

no food or fuel - the military (that has food and fuel) quarantines all cities and roadblocks prevent movement. You are stuck where you are with what you have in your closet and the water in your hot water heater.

6 months to a year

massive global famine - 80% of population is dead

year 1 to 2 years

mop up by the military occurs - all survivors (except those in swamps LOL) are rounded up and put in KBR camps...for "re-education and safety"

2 years + -

TPTB set up a global currency - global trade - etc and do it all over again - this time with no individual "freedoms" and a whole helluvalot less people - so "peak everything" is no longer an issue.

take all with a grain of salt - my real name ain't roccman and i believe we never landed on the moon.

good work Roc, and I can't believe you don't believe we never landed on the moon! LOL
just messin' with ya.
your scenario is as valid as just about any anyone else has out there. I don't think it will go smoothly for TPTB, nothing ever goes according to plan. If you figure in extreme climate disruptions and earthquakes and things of that sort, It's possible that TPTB won't be able to do near the things they might be planning.
We are in for an interesting ride, that's for sure.

good work Roc, and I can't believe you don't believe we never landed on the moon! LOL
just messin' with ya.
your scenario is as valid as just about any anyone else has out there. I don't think it will go smoothly for TPTB, nothing ever goes according to plan. If you figure in extreme climate disruptions and earthquakes and things of that sort, It's possible that TPTB won't be able to do near the things they might be planning.
We are in for an interesting ride, that's for sure.

I always ask myself - empathy aside - if i were king - what would i do...

yeah - and 911 was an inside job!!

OH THE HORROR !! anyone that believes THAT has got to be off their rocker!!!!

But believing we landed on the moon...is OH SO BELIEVABLE (we can't even get a care package to the space lab [a mere 400 miles up as opposed to 240,000 miles LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL])- fact i hear we are gonna do it again soon...oh wait - NASA is broke -

never mind.

And this was my response to roccman's response to MGD:

2 years + - TPTB set up a global currency - global trade - etc and do it all over again - this time with no individual "freedoms" and a whole helluvalot less people - so "peak everything" is no longer an issue.

Right, having fewer people will mean that global currency and global trade will work smoothly

NOT!

And yes, the global economic crisis is happening because TPTB are crashing the global system, since none of the problems which caused the 1914-1945 crisis (well before there were any material shortages of any sort or the climate crisis or... )are operative any more.

This is what happens when you view the global capitalist system strictly in material terms ("peak everything," too many mouths,... ), and totally fail to perceive, let alone understand, the underlying system of social relations which anchors it, the relations of value and surplus value which make it function.

And this was my response to roccman's response to MGD:

2 years + - TPTB set up a global currency - global trade - etc and do it all over again - this time with no individual "freedoms" and a whole helluvalot less people - so "peak everything" is no longer an issue.

Right, having fewer people will mean that global currency and global trade will work smoothly

NOT!

And yes, the global economic crisis is happening because TPTB are crashing the global system, since none of the problems which caused the 1914-1945 crisis (well before there were any material shortages of any sort or the climate crisis or... )are operative any more.

This is what happens when you view the global capitalist system strictly in material terms ("peak everything," too many mouths,... ), and totally fail to perceive, let alone understand, the underlying system of social relations which anchors it, the relations of value and surplus value which make it function.

well - i still don't think we landed on the moon - neener neener neener - on this i think you "totally fail to perceive"....

Having had WAY too much wine, I will insert a toe into this thread and then quickly run far, far away. What I think about your prognostications, Rocc, is that you are giving too much credit to TPTB. They are much too busy planning how to spend their leisure time and umpteen millions of dollars to be planning a coordinated effort at anything other than their next martini. But then again, I am totally smashed this afternoon, so what do I know???? I give you lots of credit for thinking it through carefully and thank you for providing me something interesting to contemplate.

Having had WAY too much wine, I will insert a toe into this thread and then quickly run far, far away. What I think about your prognostications, Rocc, is that you are giving too much credit to TPTB. They are much too busy planning how to spend their leisure time and umpteen millions of dollars to be planning a coordinated effort at anything other than their next martini. But then again, I am totally smashed this afternoon, so what do I know???? I give you lots of credit for thinking it through carefully and thank you for providing me something interesting to contemplate.

enjoy the wine!!

TPTB see most all of us as this guy:

LAKEVILLE, Minn. - A father accused of abandoning his 11-year-old son because his Minnesota home was in foreclosure has been arrested in a small coastal town in central California.

Steven Alexander Cross, 60, was arrested Monday afternoon in Cambria, the San Luis Obispo County Sheriff's Department said in a statement. A sheriff's patrol deputy spotted Cross' Ford Windstar van and arrested him without resistance, the department said.

Sheriff's spokesman Rob Bryn told the Minneapolis Star Tribune that Cross appeared to be living in his van and that authorities tracked him down after a tip that he was working in a deli in Cambria, some 30 miles north of San Luis Obispo.

Cross, of Lakeville, Minn., is wanted on a warrant for gross misdemeanor child neglect.

The boy awoke at their Lakeville home July 18 to discover Cross had gone, leaving two letters: one said their home, some 25 miles south of Minneapolis, was going to be sold at a sheriff's sale and instructed the boy to take his PlayStation and go to a neighbor's house; the other asked the neighbors to take care of his son.

The child is now living with an aunt, according to the Star Tribune.

The 11-year-old told police he didn't notice his father acting any differently on the night before he vanished. The boy also told a social worker he knew little about his family and that his father had told him his mother was dead. In one of the letters, Cross told his son his mother was still alive.

Cross, a licensed architect, was awarded legal custody of the boy in 2001, according to a warrant complaint seeking his arrest. The mother, identified as Katik Porter in a child protection petition, received visitation privileges but apparently never used them. Those privileges were suspended in 2002.

I don't think i give them nearly enough credit.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... osure.html

[Gnomore]

Having had WAY too much wine, I will insert a toe into this thread and then quickly run far, far away. What I think about your prognostications, Rocc, is that you are giving too much credit to TPTB. They are much too busy planning how to spend their leisure time and umpteen millions of dollars to be planning a coordinated effort at anything other than their next martini. But then again, I am totally smashed this afternoon, so what do I know???? I give you lots of credit for thinking it through carefully and thank you for providing me something interesting to contemplate.

enjoy the wine!!

TPTB see most all of us as this guy:

LAKEVILLE, Minn. - A father accused of abandoning his 11-year-old son because his Minnesota home was in foreclosure has been arrested in a small coastal town in central California.

Steven Alexander Cross, 60, was arrested Monday afternoon in Cambria, the San Luis Obispo County Sheriff's Department said in a statement. A sheriff's patrol deputy spotted Cross' Ford Windstar van and arrested him without resistance, the department said.

Sheriff's spokesman Rob Bryn told the Minneapolis Star Tribune that Cross appeared to be living in his van and that authorities tracked him down after a tip that he was working in a deli in Cambria, some 30 miles north of San Luis Obispo.

Cross, of Lakeville, Minn., is wanted on a warrant for gross misdemeanor child neglect.

The boy awoke at their Lakeville home July 18 to discover Cross had gone, leaving two letters: one said their home, some 25 miles south of Minneapolis, was going to be sold at a sheriff's sale and instructed the boy to take his PlayStation and go to a neighbor's house; the other asked the neighbors to take care of his son.

The child is now living with an aunt, according to the Star Tribune.

The 11-year-old told police he didn't notice his father acting any differently on the night before he vanished. The boy also told a social worker he knew little about his family and that his father had told him his mother was dead. In one of the letters, Cross told his son his mother was still alive.

Cross, a licensed architect, was awarded legal custody of the boy in 2001, according to a warrant complaint seeking his arrest. The mother, identified as Katik Porter in a child protection petition, received visitation privileges but apparently never used them. Those privileges were suspended in 2002.

I don't think i give them nearly enough credit.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... osure.html

Wow that guys actions just hit a nerve. Can you imagine being 11 years old and your father just leaves you with a note to go live at the neighbors house.

I'm not sure what the moon landing has to do with the current global crisis

Wow that guys actions just hit a nerve. Can you imagine being 11 years old and your father just leaves you with a note to go live at the neighbors house.

I know what you mean, Gnomore. My daughter is 11 years old. I am glad, though, for the boy, that he might be living with a family member in a better position to care for him. In a sad kind of way, it might end up being a blessing for the boy. Who knows what could have happened should "dad" have "snapped" violently while the boy was still in his care.