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Obama revises deficit estimate, 2012 will be worse than 2011


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Post Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:36 pm

Obama revises deficit estimate, 2012 will be worse than 2011

Remember these estimates are made using some very optimistic assumptions.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/obama-revises-cbo-deficit-forecast-predicts-110-debt-gdp-end-2013
Tyler Durden, 2/10/12.

While we have excoriated the unemployable, C-grade, goalseeking, manipulative excel hacks at the CBO on more than one occasion by now (see here, here and here), it appears this time it is the administration itself which has shown that when it comes to predicting the future, only "pledging" Greece is potentially worse than the CBO. WSJ reports that "President Barack Obama's budget request to Congress on Monday will forecast a deficit of $1.33 trillion in fiscal year 2012 and will include hundreds of billions of dollars of proposed infrastructure spending, according to draft documents viewed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. The projected deficit is higher than the $1.296 trillion deficit in 2011 and also slightly higher than a roughly $1.15 trillion projection released by the Congressional Budget Office last week. The budget, according to the documents, will forecast a $901 billion deficit for fiscal 2013, which would be equivalent to 5.5% of gross domestic product. That is up from the administration's September forecast of a deficit of $833 billion, or 5.1% of GDP." Where does the CBO see the 2013 budget (deficit of course): -$585 billion, or a 35% delta from the impartial CBO! In other words between 2012 and 2013 the difference between the CBO and Obama's own numbers will be a total of $542 billion. That's $542 billion more debt than the CBO, Treasury and TBAC predict will be needed. In other words while we already know that the total debt by the end of 2012 will be about $16.4 trillion (and likely more, we just use the next debt target, pardon debt ceiling as a referenece point), this means that by the end of 2013, total US debt will be at least $17.4 trillion. Assuming that US 2011 GDP of $15.1 trillion grows by the consensus forecast 2% in 2012 and 3% in 2013, it means that by the end of next year GDP will be $15.8 trillion, or a debt-to-GDP ratio of 110%. Half way from where we are now, to where Italy was yesterday. And of course, both the real final deficit and Debt to GDP will be far, far worse, but that's irrelevant.
More from WSJ:[link. Quote follows].......
Last but not least, it also means that the Treasury debt ceiling will now with almost absolutely certainty, be breached before the election, meaning as Obama is electioneering, the Treasury will be plunder government pension funds to stay under the ceiling for as long as possible.
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the violently vicious and voracious violation of volition! (V For Vendetta)

SHIT SUCKS! MOVE ON! - Allissun

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Post Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:54 pm

Re: Obama revises deficit estimate, 2012 will be worse than

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/feb2012/budg-f14.shtml
Obama Budget Combines Austerity and Phony Populism, Patrick Martin.

The budget for fiscal year 2013 proposed by the Obama White House Monday is a thoroughly cynical exercise. It calls for hundreds of billions of dollars in social spending cuts, further devastating public services and the living standards of working people.
This is combined with populist demagogy about taxing the rich, although the administration knows full well that no such measures will pass either the Republican-controlled House of Representatives or the Democratic-controlled Senate.
The budget incorporates $1 trillion over ten years in cuts to domestic social spending already agreed on with congressional Republicans in last year’s negotiations over raising the federal debt ceiling. To these cuts will be added a total of $638 billion in social spending cuts.
Relatively few details leaked out over the weekend, and a preview document issued by the White House Friday listed only the programs that would receive spending increases, not those being slashed, for which only vague generalities were available.
The largest cutback will be $360 billion over ten years from Medicare and Medicaid, mainly through reducing payments to health care providers, which will have the effect of further reducing the number of hospitals and doctors willing to treat patients on either government program. This cut is particularly pernicious because the Obama healthcare reform program calls for extending Medicaid to tens of millions of additional people in 2014, which will require more and not less funding to cover the cost.
Another $278 billion over ten years will be cut from non-health domestic programs, particularly farm programs, pension plans for federal workers, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which insures private pension funds, and the Postal Service, which is to phase out Saturday delivery and close hundreds of smaller post offices......
According to one press account, the agencies whose budgets are effectively frozen for the coming year include the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Food and Drug Administration, the National Park Service, the Fish and Wildlife Service, the Indian Health Service, Head Start and the National Institutes of Health........
The budget document does indeed propose a series of tax increases on business and the wealthy: $61 billion over ten years on the largest banks, $41 billion over ten years by eliminating tax breaks for oil, gas and coal companies, an unspecified amount from the so-called Buffett rule, which would set a minimum income tax rate of 30 percent for wealthy individuals. By adding in the expiration of the Bush administration tax cuts for the wealthy, White House officials came up with a total of $1.5 trillion in tax increases.
This figure, however, is entirely phony, since the lesser tax increase will never pass through Congress, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts does not take place until December 31, 2012, long after the beginning of the 2013 fiscal year, and nearly two months after the presidential and congressional elections.
Equally fraudulent is the claim that military spending will be reduced by $850 billion over ten years, because of the end of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is no reason to believe that the vast US outlays in Afghanistan will end in 2014, as the White House projects. And while US troops have been withdrawn from Iraq, they are being repositioned for future wars against Syria, Iran and other targets in the oil-rich Middle East and Central Asia, and ultimately against major powers like Russia and China..........
The only true assertions in relation to the budget are the projections that domestic spending will plunge over the next decade, from 8.7 percent of US gross domestic product today, to under 5 percent.
The deficit projected in the 2013 budget is $1.33 trillion, about the same as last year’s $1.36 trillion, and $200 billion more than congressional budget analysts projected last fall. It would be the fourth consecutive annual deficit of more than $1 trillion, fueled by continued record military spending, the collapse of tax revenues because of the economic slump, and the cost of the federal bailout of the banks and other financial institutions........
In his speech Monday to a student audience, Obama made the usual invocations of “shared responsibility” and equal sacrifice, including his now-standard example of how billionaire Warren Buffett pays a lower tax rate than his secretary.
But Obama’s top campaign aides are saying something very different when behind closed doors with a Wall Street audience. According to a report by Bloomberg News, Jim Messina, manager of Obama’s reelection campaign, “assured a group of Democratic donors from the financial services industry that Obama won’t demonize Wall Street.”
Among those present last week at the members-only Core Club in Manhattan, according to Bloomberg, were: “Ralph Schlosstein, chief executive officer at Evercore Partners Inc., and his wife, Jane Hartley, co-founder of the economic and political advisory firm Observatory Group LLC; Eric Mindich, founder of Eton Park Capital Management LP; and Ron Blaylock, co-founder of GenNx360 Capital Partners.”
Vow to vanquish the venal and virulent vermin vanguarding vice and vouchsafing
the violently vicious and voracious violation of volition! (V For Vendetta)

SHIT SUCKS! MOVE ON! - Allissun

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Post Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:26 am

Re: Obama revises deficit estimate, 2012 will be worse than

In 10 years we will be Greece and Greece will look alot like it did 100 years ago.The USA is just the healthest horse in the glue factory.

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