ooohhhh. That waskly wabbit.
Meanwhile in the real world . . .
MORE Surplus and more price drops . . .
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http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/ ... -2012-2016Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry
The global polysilicon industry will undergo a major shakeout over the next two years, as the feedstock's epic 2011 price declines will continue through 2013. With new entrants bringing capacity online and incumbent suppliers fulfilling expansion plans fomented in the PV demand boom of yesterday, global polysilicon capacity is forecasted to double by 2013 over 2010 levels. In today's market of waning PV demand, this over-supply has already begun to open significant gaps in production scale and therefore cost structure between industry leaders and an increasingly marginalized group of new entrants.
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Thursday, January 19, 2012
BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In 2011, the solar industry saw global oversupply drive PV prices to record lows, with crystalline silicon (c-Si) module prices falling from $1.80 per watt at the start of 2011 to $0.90 per watt by year’s end.
GTM Research's latest report, Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry report (
http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/ ... -2012-2016) is a comprehensive analysis of the industry, covering the technologies and key players in the space. The report contains a facility-by-facility cost analysis illustrating the firms best positioned to survive an extended period of oversupply. The report also includes capacity forecasts by manufacturer, by technology, and by region through 2016.
High purity silicon (polysilicon), the key feedstock for c-Si modules, played only a minor role in this price collapse, as over 80% of polysilicon is sold via long-term contracts, and the pricing on these contracts moved little for most of 2011. However, oversupply in the polysilicon market pushed the spot price of silicon down from $80 per kilogram in late March 2011 to under $30 per kilogram in December. This substantially lower spot price gave silicon customers the leverage to renegotiate contract pricing downward, and this will result in much lower realized silicon average selling prices (ASPs) in 2012.
Lower silicon prices in 2012 will likely lead to even lower c-Si module prices. Without any other improvements, a $30 per kilogram drop in silicon price would save module manufacturers approximately $0.20 per watt,
which could bring module prices below $0.70 per watt.“In 2011, polysilicon manufacturing outpaced end-use,” said GTM Research Senior Analyst, Brett Prior. “After a half-decade of silicon demand outstripping supply, the aggressive expansion plans finally overshot. This supply/demand imbalance will push producers to lower contract prices closer to the level of manufacturing costs at $20 per kilogram, and will force higher-cost manufacturers to exit the industry. While the solar market will continue to grow at a 10 to 20% pace in the coming years, reductions in the amount of silicon used in each module means that end demand for polysilicon will grow at a slower pace. The end result is that the current roster of over 170 polysilicon manufacturers and start-ups will likely be winnowed down to a dozen survivors by the end of decade.”
"If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses." attributed to Henry Ford.
Thu Jan 19, 2012 8:35 am 
